Key dates for Italian debt

The month of December 2010 will be very important for the italian politics and finance.
Probably, on Decembre 14th 2010, one or both the branches of the Parliament will deny the trust vote to the Government and in the following days there will be a new technical Government.

I expect that the italian public debt will come under attack even if this political crisis does not changes the italian finances. The attacks is not because the maket likes this Government.


The current Government, as certified by Eurostat, has taken ZERO actions to reduce the debt, grown from 1.763,559 ml Euro (Dec/2009) to 1.844,817 ml Euro (Sep/2010).
The key figures of the italian balance will be the same as today also with a new government.
THE MARKET HATES UNCERTAINTY, AND PARTICULARLY IN THIS DAYS LIKES TO AMLPLIFY THE INTERNAL COUNTRY PROBLEMS.

In the last 15 days of December 2010 there are not big placement of italian debt.
The key dates are the 13th and the 23rd December 2010 when will be placed two BOT.
I expect that the new emissions will replace the three BOT that will came to maturity on 15th and 31st December for a total amount of 17.175 ml Euro.

Also the month of January 2011 will not be a key month for the italian debt.
The "Dipartimento del tesoro" reports that in January 2011 will come to maturity BOT for an amount of 17.402 ml Euro. No other bonds will come to maturity in January 2011.

February 2011 will be the first  critical month.
The "Dipartimento del tesoro" reports that bonds for a nominal value of 38.156 ml Euro will come to maturity and March will be event worse with 47.788 ml Euro.

In September 2011 will come to maturity more than 60 bn Euro of Italian Treasury Bond.

I think that until the end of January 2011 there will be no major problem for Italy, maybe there will be minor problem due to speculation but since February 2011 Italy could face major a critical situation.

As reported by "Banca d'Italia", the 44% of the italian debt is owed "out of Italy" and the 56% is owed by italian financial istitution.
Italian people has the HIGHEST PRIVATE SAVINGS RATE IN THE WORLD that in 2007 was evaluated about 750 bn Euro, about the 50% of the current public debt. The private savings does not include stocks, real estates, etc...

The italian public debt

Today, November 29th 2010 was not a great day for the stock and the bonds market in EU.

In particular, the Italian government bonds (BOT, BTp, CCT, CTZ) has dropped a lot but the reason is not clear.
Today Italy has successfully completed the placement of two major tranches of its debt.
The rates were in line with the market ones and all the debt was allocated.

Maybe the speculation is trying to attack Italy ? Who knows...

Let me know that Italy is not Ireland, neither Greece or Portugal.

Italy has an HUGE debt.
It's Debt/GDP at the end of 2009 was at 116% and probably at the end of the current year will be worst.
If Italy comes under the same kind of attacks that hit Greece and Ireland, the EU will face the mother of all the crisis. There will be no EU fund ready to bailout Italy and this could sign the end of the Euro.

Luckly the italian government has no more long term debt to finance until the end of the 2010, and in 2011 will have to refinance a total debt lower that the one re-financed during 2010.